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[Hol'em Archive] Texas Hold'em Percentages

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Posted on 4/28/13 1:56:57 PM | Show thread starter's posts only


If you have an overpair to your opponent's underpair, what is the percentage that you will win the hand pre-flop? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)


    80%. In most instances with all things being equal the overpair has an 80% chance to win the hand and the underpair has a 20% chance. Your opponent has two outs, either of the remaining cards that are the same rank as what they hold. The percentages fluctuate of course depending on what the pairs are, what suits are covered by each pair and by whether someone not in the hand had one of the paired cards in their hand. If a player not in the hand folded one of your opponent's outs then his percentage is cut in half.

If you have an overpair to your opponent's underpair and the flop improves neither hand, what is the percentage that you will win the hand post-flop? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    90%. After the flop your percentage goes up from 80% pre-flop to 90% post-flop. If neither hand was improved then your opponent still only has two outs with two cards to come. The percentages fluctuate of course depending on what the pairs are, what suits are covered by each pair and by whether someone not in the hand had one of the paired cards in their hand. If a player not in the hand folded one of your opponent's outs then his percentage is cut in half.

If you have an overpair to your opponent's underpair and the flop nor the turn improves either hand, what is the percentage that you will win the hand post-turn? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    95%. After the turn your percentage increases again, this time to 95%. If neither hand was improved then your opponent still only has two outs with one card to come. The percentages fluctuate of course depending on what the pairs are, what suits are covered by each pair and by whether someone not in the hand had one of the paired cards in their hand. If a player not in the hand folded one of your opponent's outs then his percentage is cut in half.

If you are four flushed after the flop and the board is unpaired, what is the percentage that you will hit your flush on either the turn or the river and win the hand? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    35%. If you are four flushed on the flop then you have nine outs with two cards to come and about a 35% chance to win the hand. Your nine outs are arrived at this way: 13(the number of cards in a suit)-4(the number of that suit exposed)=9. If the board were paired then it is possible you are drawing dead because your opponent could have either a full house or quads and your flush would be no good. If the board is not paired then there is no hand your opponent can hold that your flush would not beat except of course a higher flush if you do not have the nut flush draw.

If you are still four flushed after the turn and the board is unpaired, what is the percentage that you will hit your flush on the river and win the hand? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    19%. If you are four flushed after the turn then you have nine outs with one card to come and about a 19% chance to win the hand. Your nine outs are arrived at this way: 13(the number of cards in a suit)-4(the number of that suit exposed)=9. If the board were paired then it is possible you are drawing dead because your opponent could have either a full house or quads and your flush would be no good. If the board is not paired then there is no hand your opponent can hold that your flush would not beat except of course a higher flush if you do not have the nut flush draw.

If you have an open ended straight draw after the flop and the board is unpaired with no more than two of any suit, what is the percentage that you will hit your straight on either the turn or the river and win the hand? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    32%. If you have an open ended straight draw after the flop then you have eight outs with two cards to come and about a 32% chance to win the hand. Your eight outs are arrived at this way: there are four cards of the same rank on either side of your straight draw thus 4+4=8. If the board were paired then it is possible you are drawing dead because your opponent could have either a full house or quads and your straight would be no good. If the board is not paired then there is no hand your opponent can hold that your straight would not beat unless of course you do not have the nut straight draw and they get a higher straight. If there are three or more of one suit then your opponent could have a flush and your straight would be no good. If there are no more than two of any one suit then the flush is an impossibility and your straight would be unbeatable unless of course you do not have the nut straight draw and they get a higher straight.

If you still have an open ended straight draw after the turn and the board is unpaired with no more than two of any suit, what is the percentage that you will hit your straight on the river and win the hand? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    17%. If you have an open ended straight draw after the turn then you have eight outs with one card to come and about a 14% chance to win the hand. Your eight outs are arrived at this way: there are four cards of the same rank on either side of your straight draw thus 4+4=8. If the board were paired then it is possible you are drawing dead because your opponent could have either a full house or quads and your straight would be no good. If the board is not paired then there is no hand your opponent can hold that your straight would not beat unless of course you do not have the nut straight draw and they get a higher straight. If there are three or more of one suit then your opponent could have a flush and your straight would be no good. If there are no more than two of any one suit then the flush is an impossibility and your straight would be unbeatable unless of course you do not have the nut straight draw and they get a higher straight.

If you are on a flush or straight draw or you have a flush or straight, a paired board is of no concern to you.

    False. A paired board should actually be of great concern to you as it would mean your opponent could have either a full house or quads, either of which beat you. In this situation the board should make you more cautious in how you pursue the hand not less. If your opponent does have you beat you want to minimize your losses. On the other hand, a straight or a flush is a very strong hand and you want to get paid off if you have him beat. Much of how you play it will depend on if you are in a cash game or tournament and the factors that come into play in those situations.

If you have two overcards to your opponent's pair, what is the percentage that you will win the hand pre-flop? (Assume all cards are still in play. Pick the percentage that is most accurate.)

    50%. This is a classic coin flip situation that you will face many many times in poker. For all intents and purposes the odds are even as to which hand will win. It is possible that one hand will be slighlty favored depending on what the pair is and how high the overcards are and whether or not the overcards are suited and/or connected but overall it is still a coin flip.

If you are in a hand and you have only one out on the river, meaning only one card from the deck will win you the hand, what is the percentage that you will win the hand?

    2%. If you have one out on the river then you have about a 2% chance to win the hand. It you have two outs the percentage doubles plus a little more to about 5%. The basic rule of thumb is that for every two outs you have, you have a 5% chance to win when there is one card left to come. So if you have four outs the percentage is 10%, eight outs 20%, etc. If there are two cards to come you double your percentage.


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